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Axl is an out-and-out zoner, and this is a matchup where Zato absolutely needs to get in. Without an airdash or a dash that ducks under 5P, this is an especially difficult task for him, so most of this matchup comes down to proper dash-blocking and jumping in at the right time.
Because Axl’s normals and specials are mostly negative on block, inching in is almost always an effective, if slow, strategy
Oh, and there’s so much jank here.